555
FXUS65 KGGW 161004
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
404 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
- TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY WITH A
CHINOOK; HIGH WIND HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SNOW MELT WILL INITIALLY SLOW WARMING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS PULLED SOUTHWARD TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TODAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN, A BROAD RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE PACNW BRINGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. A CHINOOK STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING RAPID WARMING AND RESULT IN A QUICK SNOWMELT. AREA
CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ICE
BREAKING UP AND WATER LEVEL RISING (PARTICULARLY INTO PETROLEUM
COUNTY). THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. WHILE THE SNOW COVER
HAS POTENTIAL TO INITIALLY LIMIT THE MIXING DOWN OF HIGH WINDS IN
THE CHINOOK, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE LITTLE ROCKIES WILL
HAVE AN EASIER TIME BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST HREF
PROBABILITIES POINT TO GREATER THAN 80% CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 60 MPH TUESDAY IN SW PHILLIPS COUNTY, WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT STARTING 8PM MONDAY. SURROUNDING COUNTIES
HAVE A HIGH WIND WATCH WITH PATCHES OF AROUND 50% PROBABILITY FOR
HIGH WINDS AS SHORT TERM HREF GUIDANCE STARTS TO COME IN WITH
STRONGER MIXING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATED ON WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCOMING CHINOOK BY
BLENDING NBM90/NBM.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER TO MELT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR AN UPGRADE OR PARTIAL EXPANSION TO THE
HIGH WIND HEADLINES.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1000Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE
BEGINNINGS OF A CHINOOK ALOFT WILL INCREASE HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INTO TODAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CHINOOK BEGINS TO REACH THE
FAR EAST NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS BETWEEO 06-12Z. THIS INCLUDE FZRA, BUT
TOTALS LOOK MINIMAL WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH AT MAX, AND CHANCES
THEMSELVES ARE BELOW 50%. HENCE THE REASON THEY APPEAR AT KSDY AS
PROB30S AT BEST.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FROM 04Z MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. BECOMING S TO SE AT 5 TO 15
KTS AFTER SUN-UP THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN TURNING SW TO W AFTER
06Z/MIDNIGHT.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-PETROLEUM.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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