720
FXUS65 KGGW 161917
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
117 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY SUBTLE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, IF
ANY.
- TEMPERATURES AND CHINOOK WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY;
A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE LITTLE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FORT PECK LAKE.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY REMAINING SNOW PACK WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE IMPACT OF
WARMING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY SW OF FORT PECK LAKE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CHINOOK, A SMALL EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY AT ALL.
THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY MAKING IT'S IMPACT
FELT AS WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. OUR LOCAL IMPACTS IN NE MONTANA WILL
SHOW UP AS A STRONG CHINOOKING WNW WIND, STARTING EARLY TUESDAY.
LATELY HREF WIND MODEL HAS BEEN MOSTLY ACCURATE, AND IT IS SHOWING
GUSTS TO 60 MPH EASILY REACHING THROUGH MOST OF OUR WESTERN CWA
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. I CHOSE TO UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING AND INCLUDE NORTHERN VALLEY
COUNTY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
EVENTUAL SNOW MELT FOR PETROLEUM COUNTY. FLATWILLOW CREEK AND
OTHER AREA DRAINAGES WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR HIGH
WATER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATED ON WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCOMING CHINOOK
BY BLENDING NBM90/NBM.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER TO MELT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AREA.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1915Z, MONDAY, MARCH 16
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHINOOK ALOFT WILL INCREASE HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO TODAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE THE
CHINOOK APPROACHED OUR REGION, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH AT MAX,
AND CHANCES THEMSELVES ARE BELOW 50%. HENCE THE PROB30S AT BEST.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
BEGINNING AROUND 08Z OR 09Z AND REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE TAF
CYCLE.
WIND: THIS AFTERNOON, FROM THE S AND SE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.
TONIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE CHINOOK. TOMORROW
(TUESDAY), FROM THE WNW AT 25 TO 30 KTS SUSTAINED, GUSTING AROUND
50 KTS AT TIMES. THE WIND WILL CALM AGAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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