018
FXUS65 KGGW 170433
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1033 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY SUBTLE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY.
- TEMPERATURES AND CHINOOK WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TODAY; A
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE LITTLE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FORT PECK LAKE.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME HIGHS IN THE 70S. TEMPS RETURN TO NORMAL BRIEFLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CHINOOK, A SMALL EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE
IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING FOR NORTH DAKOTA.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY AT ALL.
THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW IS ALREADY
MAKING IT'S IMPACT FELT AS INCREASINGLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
REGION AND ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. FIRST LOCAL IMPACTS
IN NE MONTANA WILL SHOW UP TODAY AS A STRONG CHINOOKING WNW WIND.
LATELY HREF WIND MODEL HAS BEEN MOSTLY ACCURATE, AND IT IS
SHOWING GUSTS TO 60 MPH EASILY REACHING THROUGH MOST OF OUR
WESTERN CWA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE,
THE NBM ON THE WHOLE HAS BEEN UNDERPERFORMING/UNDERESTIMATING
WINDS DURING THE HIGH WIND CHINOOK EVENTS. A HIGH WIND WARNING
IN PLACE FROM THE FAR WEST TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF FORT PECK LAKE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND
EVENTUAL SNOW MELT FOR PETROLEUM COUNTY. FLATWILLOW CREEK AND
OTHER AREA DRAINAGES WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR HIGH
WATER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS INCLUDE A 50/50 BLEND OF NBM/NBM90 FROM 15Z TO 02Z
TODAY WITH THE HIGH WIND ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AREA.
/GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0330Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: THE BEGINNINGS OF A CHINOOK ALOFT WILL INCREASE HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO TODAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE THE
CHINOOK APPROACHED OUR REGION, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH AT MAX,
AND CHANCES THEMSELVES ARE BELOW 50%. HENCE THE PROB30S AT BEST.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING AROUND 08-09Z AND REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE CHINOOK THIS MORNING.
BECOMING WNW AT 25 TO 30 KTS SUSTAINED, GUSTING AROUND 50 KTS AT
TIMES AFTER SUNUP AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CALMING TONIGHT.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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