619
FXUS65 KGGW 171820
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1220 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AND CHINOOK WINDS ARE OCCURING TODAY; A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN PLACE FROM THE LITTLE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FORT PECK LAKE.
- A SUBTLE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOME HIGHS IN THE 70S. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL BRIEFLY
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A CHINOOK PATTERN OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED STRONG TO INTENSE
WINDS TO COME UP TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 6 PM TODAY FOR THESE WINDS.
THE LATEST HREF 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS REACH CRITERIA
(58 MPH GUST) OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AREA, SO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING, SO THERE ARE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
BETWEEN 6 AM AND 3 PM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL WITH
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN 0.03 HUNDREDTHS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST 12Z HREF SUGGESTS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL BE CLOSER TO CENTRAL MONTANA.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW. THE LATEST HREF IS NOT
AGGRESSIVE WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING 58 MPH TOMORROW, SO NO WIND
PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAPID SNOWMELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND
EVENTUAL SNOW MELT FOR PETROLEUM COUNTY. FLATWILLOW CREEK AND
OTHER AREA DRAINAGES WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR HIGH
WATER AND FLOODING CONCERNS.
THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS INCLUDE A 25/75 BLEND OF NBM/NBM90 AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH DAY 2. INCREASED POPS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAK DISTURBANCE.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS REACHING 58 MPH FOR
THE LITTLE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AND LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL OCCURRING TOMORROW, AND
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION REMAINING BELOW 0.03 INCHES
OVERALL.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1700Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: SOME CHINOOK MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING, SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 12Z
AND 21Z. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGH.
LLWS: NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS FROM AROUND 00Z TO 16Z.
WIND: MAINLY NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 03Z, BECOMING WEST AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUST TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 17Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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