178
FXUS65 KGGW 181913
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
113 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
RECORDS CHALLENGED.
- THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A CHINOOK PATTERN OVER THE AREA IS A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY, SO
NO WIND PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED TODAY. THERE IS A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY, AND THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY EVENING. LESS THAN 0.03
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACCORDING TO HREF
GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED AS
LOW AS THE MID TEENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TODAY,
WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE NBM PREDICTED. THIS LEADS INTO THE IDEA OF
TOMORROW BEING SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND THERE IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW AS A RESULT. WITH HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW RECORD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOST SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED FROM THE RECENT SNOWSTORM, THOUGH
SMALL STREAMS (PETROLEUM COUNTY IN PARTICULAR) ARE BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR HIGH WATER AND FLOODING CONCERNS. CURRENTLY, ALL
GAUGES ARE BELOW ACTION STAGE. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE REMAINS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN,
MAINTAINING THE UNUSUAL WARM AND DRY PATTERN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED BASE NBM WINDS WITH A MIX OF NBM AND NBM90 FOR TODAY
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MANUALLY FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW BASED ON PREVIOUS OBSERVATIONS. INCREASED POPS
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY 7 PM
TONIGHT, AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW 0.03 INCHES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING TOMORROW.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON FLOODING CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1800Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: SOME CHINOOK MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEST
OF KGDV THROUGH 00Z, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.
LLWS: THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WEST NORTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OCCURRING AROUND KGDV FROM 03Z TO 06Z, AND AT
KGGW FROM 12Z TO 17Z.
WIND: WEST AT 12 TO 20 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER
03Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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