190
FXUS65 KGGW 191758
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1158 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME RECORDS CHALLENGED.
- THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A CHINOOK PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA
BEING CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN END OF A HEAT DOME RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, SO THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW ACCORDING TO THE
12Z HRRR, NAMNEST, AND HRWFV3 MODELS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION (LESS THAN 0.02 INCHES) IS EXPECTED. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPED AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA YESTERDAY, WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE
NBM PREDICTED. THIS LEADS INTO THE IDEA OF TODAY AND TOMORROW
BEING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THERE IS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RESULT. HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD
AND SNOWFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND ARE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WHY FIRE
PRODUCTS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED. WHILE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE, IT SEEMS MORE RECORD HIGH MAXIMUMS IN
THE 70S HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE BROKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE REMAINS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO BREAK DOWN ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD NORMAL. SO FAR,
THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA RECEIVING ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MAIN DEVIATIONS ARE THE HUMIDITY WAS DECREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA, AND TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UPWARD FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW BY A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON YESTERDAYS OBSERVATIONS.
THE POPS WERE INCREASED FOR TOMORROW, AND THEN FOR SATURDAY TO
BRING POPS UPWARD TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR RAINFALL.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OCCURRING TODAY AND TOMORROW BASED ON FUELS RECEIVING SNOWFALL
FAIRLY RECENTLY. THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES
BEING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING TOMORROW,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATION.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1800Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: SOME CHINOOK MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THEN A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING DURING
THIS TIME, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
LLWS: THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OCCURRING FROM 04Z TO 14Z.
WIND: WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS,
DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 04Z, INCREASING TO 10 TO 18
KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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