690
FXUS65 KGGW 101942
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
142 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COMFORTABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD SHOWS A VERY SLOW-MOVING WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN U.S., CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY-STRONG RIDGE OF
WARM HIGH PRESSURE TODAY THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS REGIONS. UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE, IS A STALLED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NE MONTANA WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT AS THE LARGE
WEST COAST SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THAT RIDGE AND INTRODUCE LESS STABLE AND
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE
OTHERWISE SW FLOW ALOFT. AS EARLY AS TOMORROW, SATURDAY, SOME
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DESCENDING FROM CENTRAL
MONTANA'S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PUSHING THROUGH SOME EASTERN
MONTANA HIGH PLAINS. FOR NOW, PHILLIPS AND NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SEE A DECENT RAIN SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 6 PM.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET BETWEEN STORMS.
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OPENS UP A BIT
MORE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL FOCUS
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH NE MONTANA. THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS BEHIND A COOL FRONT WILL LIKELY ACT TO INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT SOME OF THOSE DETAILS STILL NEED TO GET WORKED OUT.
THAT ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE AWAY BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
ONLY DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM CRON WAS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS USING THE BEST AGREEMENT FROM HI-RES MODEL
DATA.
THERE IS HIGH TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTER THIS TIME.
THERE IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WINDS SATURDAY
EVENING, BUT AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
THREAT OF CONVECTIVE STORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND PUSHING THROUGH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER THIS TIME.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1920Z, FRIDAY AFTERNOON, APRIL 10
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES TO BEGIN, THEN INCREASING HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SW TO NE. SPECIFICS FOR TAF SITES WILL
BECOME EVIDENT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. SOME
AMENDMENTS FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NEEDED.
WINDS: TODAY FROM THE SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW STRONGER
GUSTS. TONIGHT, FROM THE ESE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THEN CALMING BY SATURDAY MORNING. BY
MID-DAY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL TURN MORE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FROM THE S AND SW AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DOWNDRAFT AND OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE LATER
SATURDAY EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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