956
FXUS65 KGGW 110638
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1238 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY.
- SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS OVER MONTANA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST NEAR CALIFORNIA AND OREGON WILL MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND REACH
MONTANA TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE WAVE WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST TRANSITIONS
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THE SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO MONTANA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DIFFER
ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
AT THIS POINT, THE NBM LINGERS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY
IN SOME AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING EITHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING
ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
ONLY DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM CRON WAS SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS MIXING IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FROM HI-RES MODEL DATA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY, AND MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BEYOND TODAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW WINDS THIS EVENING, BUT THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL THREAT OF CONVECTIVE STORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0430Z, SATURDAY APRIL 11
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: LOOK FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE BY THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE. SPECIFICS FOR TAF SITES
WILL BECOME EVIDENT LATER TODAY. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NEEDED.
LLWS: WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SE WIIND 40
TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 2000 FEET AGL.
WINDS: SE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SE TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING AND VEER TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND TURN TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS AND
OUTFLOW WINDS THIS EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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