981
FXUS65 KGGW 111911
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
111 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS TONIGHT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIGNIFICANT MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WARMTH UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHING TO THE EAST HAS PRODUCED STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MIXING AHEAD OF INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR,
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
WHILE NOT AIDED BY ELEVATED SYNOPTIC WINDS LIKE EARLIER THIS WEEK,
THE SETUP IS PRIME FOR AT LEAST A FEW 50-60 MPH GUSTS FROM
OUTFLOW OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
OVER PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST TRANSITIONS
INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THE SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
INTO MONTANA, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STILL DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, THE NBM LINGERS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY IN SOME AREAS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING EITHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES STARTING
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW,
PARTICULARLY FOR ELEVATED AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST 2" OF SNOW AT THIS TIME ARE 20-40%.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE ONLY DEVIATIONS MADE WERE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS MIXING
IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FROM HI-RES MODEL DATA AND AN INCREASE IN
THUNDER PROBABILITY FOR THIS EVENING TO REFLECT A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE.
THERE IS MODERATE OR AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TWO
SYSTEMS PRODUCING WETTING PRECIPITATION, CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY
LOW FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1830Z, SATURDAY, APRIL 11
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR
DISCUSSION: HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM
SW TO NE THIS EVENING. KGGW AND POINTS WEST ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREAS FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
00-03Z, WHILE OTHER SITES MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT FOR GUSTIER WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
LLWS: POCKETS OF WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 04-08Z TONIGHT WITH WEST WIND
40 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 2000 FEET AGL.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page