348
FXUS65 KGGW 152035
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
235 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY WITH AN
ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORM. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH
SNOW ON THURSDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS.
- EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LOOK TO PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. HREF MAX
ENSEMBLE WIND GUST GUIDANCE SHOWS SUPPORT FOR POTENTIAL GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 0-6Z THURSDAY TIMING AND TRACK FROM
CENTRAL MT EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES ACROSS THE LITTLE
ROCKIES TO NEAR JORDAN.
MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE FOLLOWING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW, BUT LATEST TRENDS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS INCLUDING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECT THAT THE
STEADIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN NORTH INTO CANADA AS WELL
AS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MONTANA PER LATEST ENSEMBLE
MEANS.
FAR COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHILE
NORTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
FORT PECK LAKE FROM 9AM TO 9PM THURSDAY.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH MILDER AND DRIER
WEATHER BEGINNING BY THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NEAR TERM WINDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH A BLEND OF NBM90 FOLLOWING A
PERIOD OF DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
TOTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINING LIGHT OVERALL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BUT REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPERATURE
THRESHOLDS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1930Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: LOOK FOR VFR INITIALLY AMID INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS EVENING. LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS
BECOMING MORE COMMON OVERNIGHT. AS RAIN MIXES AND CHANGES TO SNOW
ON THURSDAY, MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE.
WIND: LOOK FOR SW WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE ON THURSDAY, RANGING 15 TO 25 KTS, GUSTING TO 35 KTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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