266
FXUS65 KGGW 020730
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
130 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD 70S
ON SUNDAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
- ANOTHER SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY MID WORK WEEK WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SYNOPTIC UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. WHILE A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND STABILIZED TEMPERATURES TODAY,
ANOTHER ONE LATE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS PARTICULARLY
WARM/DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
DEGREES.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THE PATTERN THEN FAVORS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURES TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MADE SOME DEVIATIONS ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND TO REFLECT RECENT MODEL BIAS
AGAINST LOWER RH AND INCREASED WINDS. OTHERWISE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR HOW COOL TEMPERATURES SWING EARLY IN THE
WEEK.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0700Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY WEATHER WITH SCT TO BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WIND: A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHIFTING WINDS THIS MORNING OUT OF THE
NORTH THAT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY AROUND 10-15, GUST
20-25 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
WHEN WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES COMBINE WITH FUELS THAT ARE
VERY DRY FROM SEVERE LACK OF PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING AND A
NUMBER OF RECENT DAYS WITH RH IN THE TEENS.
A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING TO BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MODERATED TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY MOSTLY SUNNY
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH RH IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH AS 80 DEGREES. THIS COMBINED WITH A RECORD DRY YEAR SO FAR
FOR SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER SUCH AS SIDNEY AND
FORECAST ERCS UP TO THE 97TH PERCENTILE LEND TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONCERNS AS WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH COVERS
THIS AREA IN ZONES 120 AND 122. THE WIND IS PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING IN THE NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 25 MPH SUSTAINED LIKELY IN
THE PLENTYWOOD AREA. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW MONDAY WHILE
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WHILE THERE ARE ONLY VERY
SLIGHT (10% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SHOWERS.
-JEZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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