441
FXUS65 KGGW 030716
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
116 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR AREAS EAST OF HWY 24.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
- ANOTHER SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS MAINTAINED.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SYNOPTIC UPPER RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT BRINGS PARTICULARLY WARM/DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF IT, WITH SOME PREFRONTAL WARMING BRINGING HIGHS AS WARM
AS THE LOWER 80S.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT, A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS (MOSTLY VIRGA FOR SOME). AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPANDS EASTWARD, THE PATTERN WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES TO
SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS THROUGH MONDAY TO REFLECT EXPECTED
ENHANCEMENT FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO,
INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED RH ACCORDINGLY TODAY TO COUNTER
RECENT NBM BIAS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH NEARING 10 PERCENT.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OR AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENT OF WARMING AND
FURTHER DRYING LATER THIS WEEK BASED ON ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER
RIDGING TO THE WEST.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0700Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY WEATHER WITH FEW TO SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TODAY, THEN MORE OVERCAST SKIES WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
WIND: INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING OUT OF THE WEST, BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES COMBINE WITH FUELS THAT ARE VERY DRY FROM
SEVERE LACK OF PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING AND A NUMBER OF RECENT
DAYS WITH RH IN THE TEENS.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY MOSTLY
SUNNY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD RH IN THE TEENS AND
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 80S. THIS COMBINED WITH A
RECORD DRY YEAR SO FAR FOR SOME AREAS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER SUCH AS SIDNEY AND FORECAST ERCS TO NEAR THE 97TH
PERCENTILE SUPPORTS CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING COVERS THIS AREA IN ZONES 120 AND
122. THE WIND IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNING IN THE NORTHEAST WITH
AROUND 25-30 MPH SUSTAINED LIKELY FOR A PERIOD IN THE PLENTYWOOD
AREA. ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
TODAY, JUST NOT AS STRONG OF WINDS OR RECEPTIVE FUELS AS THE
WARNED AREA. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW MONDAY WHILE WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WHILE THERE IS NEAR ZERO CHANCE
OF A WETTING RAIN FROM ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
LOOKING AHEAD, WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK, THERE IS LESS CONCERN AT THIS TIME OF
STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP COINCIDING WITH A DRY PATTERN AND RH
DOWN IN THE TEENS.
-JEZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT
PECK RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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