254
FXUS65 KGGW 040719
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
119 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
- ANOTHER SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
- INSTABILITY BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHERLY TODAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S AND SCATTERED SHOWERS (MOSTLY VIRGA FOR SOME). A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW GIVEN
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD, THE PATTERN WILL REBOUND TEMPERATURES TO SEASONABLY WARM
LEVELS WITH A CONTINUATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
BY LATE IN THE WEEK, PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, MOSTLY FAVORING
ELEVATED AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. MORE PERSISTENT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MODELS
BEGINNING TO HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT THIS TIME SHOW A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR RAIN AMOUNTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED DAY 1 - 2 WINDS AND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OR
AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENT OF WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING LATER THIS
WEEK BASED ON ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST. AFTER
MIDWEEK THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF TROUGHING AND CLOSED LOWS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0700Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY WEATHER WITH BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BRIEF ENHANCED OR
ERRATIC WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF ANY SHOWERS
VERSUS VISIBILITY REDUCTION.
WIND: NW AT 15 TO 20 KTS, INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO
30 KTS AFTER 15Z. THEN, DECREASING TO N AROUND 10 KTS BY 06Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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