890
FXUS65 KGGW 070626
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1226 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MONTANA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- THERE ARE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
NORTHEAST MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE. WITH COOL 500 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY (AROUND -20
CELSIUS) AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ACCUMULATING RAIN. SO FAR THE BASE NBM SUGGESTS A FEW HUNDREDTHS
UP TO A TENTH OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE LITTLE ROCKIES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN EXPECTED IN THE EAST
PART OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AND PASSING
FRONT WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS A BIT ON THE HIGHER END
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. WE EXPECT THERE TO BE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND BASED ON THE
FACT IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY THERE AS OF LATE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON FRIDAY THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 120 AND 122.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MADE DEVIATIONS TO BRING POPS UP TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO DROPPED THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MANUALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF FORT PECK LAKE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OCCURRING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120 AND 122.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: MAY 7TH AT 0620Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: THE GLASGOW COUNTY WARNING AREA IS ON THE THE EDGE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH, SO MID TO HIGH CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z THURSDAY TO 03Z FRIDAY. THERE IS
THEREFORE MODERATE (40 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
WINDS: SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 13 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 17
KNOTS AFTER 20Z THURSDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z
FRIDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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