486
FXUS65 KGGW 130732
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
132 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SE WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM TODAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST AND 9 PM THIS EVENING IN THE EAST AND CONTINUES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TODAY WILL BRING
THE WARMEST DAY OF 2026 SO FAR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
90S IN MOST AREAS AND IN THE 80S NORTHEAST.
INCREASED DRY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LOW RH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 9 PM TODAY.
A COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD HAVE
STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
WIND GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
WITH EITHER THE COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW FROM ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR.
HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BEGINNING
AT 4 PM TODAY IN THE WEST AND 9 PM TODAY IN THE EAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING
STRONG WEST WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH AT TIMES. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
SASKATCHEWAN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOMES STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND
WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL. EXPECT IT
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR BUT A STEADY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THE UPPER LOWS TO OUR NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
ADJUSTED POPS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO PROVIDE
BETTER HOUR TO HOUR CONSISTENCY. NO OTHER DEVIATIONS WERE MADE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT IN THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRPORTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
ERRATIC WINDS IN THE AREA BEFORE MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE
THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND: SE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY. INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOONS. A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WILL VEER WINDS TO THE WEST AROUND 06Z AT KGGW, 07Z AT
KOLF AND KGDV AND 08Z AT KSDY AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THURSDAY MORNING.
EQUIPMENT: NO OBS FROM KSDY. TAF WILL BE AMD NOT SKED UNTIL OBS
RETURN.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RH IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN
THE 90S IN MOST AREAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THROUGH 9 PM TODAY FOR ALL FIRE ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES AND SPREADING EAST THIS EVENING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
STRONG WEST WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH MIN RH IN THE 20S SOUTH AND 30S NORTH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT
PECK RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-
RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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