434
FXUS65 KGGW 150736
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
136 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WITH WAVES
UP TO 5 FT.
- GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
DURING THE DAY TODAY WINDS WILL INCREASE, BUT NOT BE AS STRONG AS
DAYS PREVIOUS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
WHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH CLOSE TO THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA ON SATURDAY ALLOWING AN
INCREASE IN LIFT AND POSSIBLY RAIN FOR THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY THAT
WILL PUSH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH BUT THE CWA MAY
BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF IT. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING IT TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, THOUGH PERIODS
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS MORE LIKELY.
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TUESDAY SO A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED POPS USING A BLEND OF HIRES MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0700Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION:
GUSTY WEST WINDS RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE LESSENING
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM BLOWING DUST AT TIMES IN THE
AFTERNOON CREATING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
LLWS:
AREAS OF LLWS OVER KGDV THROUGH 12Z.
EQUIPMENT: KSDY WILL REMAIN AMD NOT SKED.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA. GUSTY WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH MIN RH IN THE 20S IN MOST AREAS AND IN THE 30S
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT, LOWERING TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
NIGHTTIME RECOVERY RH IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS AND 60 TO 70 NORTH
OF HWY 2.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-NORTHERN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND
SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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