366
FXUS65 KGGW 170823
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF RAIN LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR FREEZING,
COLDEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BRING WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF
THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WITH 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WITH THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES, MAKE SURE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH A BIT WEAKER THAN THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO SNEAK THROUGH THE OVERALL FLOW,
BRINGING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTION TO THE AREA. CURRENT
MODEL PLUMES SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE ~300 J/KG MLCAPE
RANGE DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW FORECAST RH MAY SUGGEST
IT AS A WIND EVENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED HIRES ARW AND SREF FOR PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT. RAISED
WINDS USING HRRR AND NBM90 FOR WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0730Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR, IFR AFTER 18Z
DISCUSSION: LOW OVERCAST SKIES WITH A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS PUSHING EAST OUT OF TAF SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON. KGGW AND
KOLF WILL SEE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
CHANCE OF SEEING A WEAK THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON IS 10 TO 15
PERCENT, OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS: CYCLONICALLY SHIFTING WIND FOLLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS BECOME PREDOMINANTLY NNW AT 15
TO 20 KTS AFTER 18Z TODAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page