530
FXUS65 KGGW 190759
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
159 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS MORNING WILL BE COLD ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA, WITH BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS.
- PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES COULD HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTING TO HAVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
- WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
FORECAST BEGINS WITH A LARGE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE HUDSON BAY. A
TROUGH RUNS WEST OUT OF IT AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND EASTERN MONTANA, AND TERMINATES OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. AN EQUALLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THE PCNW, BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND TERMINATES OVER THE
YUKON TERRITORY.
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL START OFF COOL WITH
A GROUND FREEZE INITIALLY AS CLEAR SKIES HOVER OVER THE AREA. BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON, A WAVE ON NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST
AS PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING: A LOW PRESSURE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST DURING
THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. QPF TOTALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH ISOLATED AREAS
RECEIVING MORE RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND: CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR AND WARM
THROUGH THESE TIME PERIODS WITH MAYBE A WEAK SHOWER POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE BREAKDOWN OCCURING ABOUT THIS POINT
FORWARD MAKING CONFIDENCE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CHANGES TO NBM WERE FOCUSED TO HOURLY POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG WITH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOURLY NBM
DATA WAS BEING DIRECT INTERPOLATED IN THE LAST 5 HOURS. USED AND
NPOP BLEND OF AVAILABLE CAMS TO TRY TO QUICK BLEND IN A SLIGHTLY
BETTER TREND.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS LOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOMEWHERE IN NE MONTANA BUT
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WHEN AND WHERE IS LOW.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A FEW
ISOLATED FOG POCKETS MAY BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF KOLF AND KSDY AS
CLOUDS CLEAR BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE MAIN TERMINALS DIRECTLY
THIS MORNING. A MIX OF DAYTIME CUMULUS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY, BECOMING S TO SW AFTER SUN RISE
AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND BACKING
TO THE S TO SE THIS EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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