132
FXUS65 KGGW 031740
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1140 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NORTH PART OF THE AREA THROUGH
8 PM TODAY.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TODAY. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM TODAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL FILTER IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 6 AM IN THE SOUTHWEST AND REACHING
THE EAST BY AROUND 3 PM. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. UP TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE TALLEST STORMS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING SO SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER 6 PM FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY OCCURRING ON SATURDAY IN THE EAST DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EAST PART
OF THE AREA, SO THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MORE CONCERNING WILL BE A PROLONGED SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW THAT
SETS UP THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD MEAN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRENCES THAT COULD BE SEVERE.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PRECIP WATER NEAR OR ABOVE
AN INCH (NORMAL IS BETWEEN 0.50-0.75"). THERE IS LOW CERTAINTY ON
HOW LONG THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE ONLY DEVIATION WAS TO INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL LINGERING CLOSE TO THE
AREA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW 5
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 1830Z JUNE THIRD
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR THROUGH 21Z, THEN VFR, THEN ISOLATED MVFR
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION: A SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE
TOWARD VFR AFTER 21Z TODAY. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
SHOWERS OCCURRING THROUGH 21Z TODAY FOR KOLF AND KGGW. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
20Z THURSDAY.
WINDS: MAINLY WEST AT 8 TO 16 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 03Z, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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