358
FXUS65 KGGW 041832
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1232 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
NOW, AND WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT AFTER 2 AM FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF A
LAKE WIND PRODUCT BEING NEEDED FOR FORT PECK LAKE DURING THAT
TIME.
- A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE AREA, AND IT IS BRINGING ACCUMULATING RAIN SHOWERS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH
TERRAIN INFLUENCE BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE TO BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MANY
DIFFERENT FORMS OF MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE 12Z MAX HREF WIND GUST HAS
A SEVERE GUST IN PRAIRIE AND WIBAUX COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THIS HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE IN FOR TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON SATURDAY, AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL
BRING A DECENT SHOT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS, BUT
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SO
FAR, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS LARGE HAIL AS A PRIMARY
THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH FOR SATURDAY BRINGS HEAVY RAIN INTO THE
PICTURE, SO RISES IN STREAMS WILL BE MONITORED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
MODEST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FOR SUNDAY BRINGS DOWN THE SEVERE
THREAT, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES, SO RAIN IS STILL PART OF THE
STORY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
JUNE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE ONLY NBM DEVIATION WAS TO INCREASE AFTERNOON WINDS FOR TODAY
AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINING
BELOW CRITICAL ON FRIDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEING NEEDED
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM FRIDAY, AND IN SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1822Z JUNE 4TH
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR, ISOLATED IFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, AND A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES TO BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AFTER AROUND
8Z. WITH THIS PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE
MOISTURE TO ALLOW A LOW PROBABILITY OF FOG TO EXIST BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THAT.
WIND: VARIABLE AT 6 TO 11 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
2Z, BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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