829
FXUS65 KGGW 050559
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1159 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK IN FROM
THE WEST FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION NEXT TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO
BE IN THE CARDS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MONTANA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST WITH DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. HREF SHOWS THE TIMING OF INITIATION ROUGHLY
AFTER 4 PM WITH STORMS TRACKING NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SURFACE CAPE IS THE STRONGEST, 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR THE
MT/ND BORDER, ALONG WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED-V SIGNATURES IN THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITION ABOVE 500MB.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN THE EAST WHERE THE GREATEST RISK LIKELY WILL BE. OVERALL
WOULD EXPECT THIS PROFILE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR AND
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
DOWNSTREAM LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS IN CHARGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE WHICH CAPTURED EXPECTED
TRENDS WELL FOR THE 7 DAY PERIOD. A BLEND WITH HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY BE APPROPRIATE FOR POPS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS TO BETTER CAPTURE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FROM A
LINE THROUGH ABOUT GLASGOW TO JORDAN EASTWARD TO THE MT/ND BORDER.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: FRIDAY JUNE 5, 2026 AT 0545Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: FRIDAY WILL FEATURE GREAT FLYING WEATHER WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES UNFOLDING AND DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE EVENING WITH A WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER POSSIBLE.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 8 KTS AFTER 12Z, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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