352
FXUS65 KGGW 061900
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
100 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
TODAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
- A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND. A
BROADER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH ANOTHER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OFF THE WEST COAST, BUT
EFFECTS OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL LINGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES.
BEYOND TODAY, WHERE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES, COOL AND SOMEWHAT WET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE CAPE
REACHES AROUND 2000 J/KG AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
AN UPPER WAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN IN THE WEST. WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, AND IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS, HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TODAY AND INCLUDED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE
EVENING. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS FOR TODAY AS ALL THE MODELS ARE
UNDERFORECASTING THE CURRENT WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. SOME
STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUST OVER 50 KNOTS WITH KGDV AND KSDY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE STRONGER STORMS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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