039
FXUS65 KGGW 071802
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1202 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING.
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM THIS
EVENING.
- MONDAY WILL BE DRY BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND
PARTIALLY WET WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN JUST OFF TO THE WEST, SO THIS
IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY GOING TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF A LINE FROM SCOBEY
TO TERRY. SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST IF IT OCCURS, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AND 1
INCH HAIL POSSIBLE. WIBAUX COUNTY IS THE CLOSEST TO THIS WORST
CASE SCENARIO. MOST MODELS SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER WILL STAY TO THE
SOUTH THOUGH. ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED IF STORMS MOVE THROUGH YOUR AREA. WHEN IT COMES TO
HAIL SIZE, REFERENCES TO THINGS THAT ARE CONSISTENTLY THE SAME
ROUND DIAMETER, SUCH AS COIN SIZES, ARE THE MOST HELPFUL. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA 3 PM TODAY, SO TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN DROPPING BEFORE SUNSET. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND WIND TO THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A DRY DAY ON MONDAY
IS IN STORE. ONE OTHER NICE THING IS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA GOT SOME RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND HOPEFULLY WILL GET
A BIT MORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THAT FIRE CONDITIONS STAY
QUIET.
ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE PIVOTING
AND CYCLING ABOVE THE AREA, SO THIS WILL AID IN GETTING A LOW
LEVEL JET GOING AT 850 MILLIBARS. THIS WILL START PUSHING A PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST, SO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST BY A FEW MODELS FROM 1 AM TUESDAY
THROUGH 6 AM. THERE WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON, SO
BELOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS IN THE AREA.
BEYOND TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OVERHEAD. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL BE EFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH
JUNE 13TH, SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PART OF THE STORY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS WERE MADE.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN ACCUMULATING RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENING.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ON TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING, AND
SIMILAR CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR. IFR POSSIBLE FROM 23Z TO 03Z FOR
KSDY AND KGDV.
DISCUSSION: THERE WILL BE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL CENTERED IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KGDV
AND KSDY ARE THE CLOSEST TAF SITES TO THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, AND A FEW
MODELS INDICATE STORMS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 80 MPH. MOST MODELS HAVE
THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY, BUT WANTED TO
MENTION IT IN CASE THE STORMS START A BIT FURTHER WEST. THERE
IS THEREFORE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS, AND LOW
CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z
MONDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL REDUCE
CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES FROM 03Z TO 06Z. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWING THROUGH AND CLEAR THINGS OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS: FOR KOLF AND KGGW, NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING
TO 17 TO 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 2 PM, BECOMING WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS AFTER 09Z. FOR KSDY AND KGDV, NORTHEAST
AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS AFTER 21Z,
INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 00Z, BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS AFTER 07Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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