184
FXUS65 KGGW 090658
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1258 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR FORT PECK LAKE CONTINUES FROM
2 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN INITIAL ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AND IS REFLECTED IN BOTH
THE HREF AND NBM GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND OUR SW
ZONES. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MAX UPDRAFT HELICITY IN THE HREF
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE 40DBZ OVERLAY. THAT SAID, WITH
THE PROXIMAL TROUGH THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A LONE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORM MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE ACROSS NE
MONTANA. FOR NOW, HREF CONSENSUS MATCHED THE NBM WELL SO LEFT
THESE CENTRAL AREAS DRY, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS CAN MONITOR FOR A
TWEAK. NEVERTHELESS, THE GREATEST RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE ANCHORED INTO THE DAKOTAS, EASTWARD FOR
DAY 1 PER SPC.
MEANWHILE, GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY IF NOT BEYOND. THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE REMAINS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
TROUGH IN PLACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS LEFT ALONE FOR NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
EXCELLENT CONSENSUS AMONG THE HREF ENSEMBLES AND NBM ON
THUNDERSTORM LOCATION FOR TODAY. THAT SAID, ONE OR TWO MEMBERS
SHOW A LONE OR ROGUE POP UP SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FOR NOW THE RISK IS LOW ENOUGH,
KEPT THESE AREAS DRY, BUT WORTH MONITORING.
CONFIDENCE THEN REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEASONABLY COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK GIVEN THE OVERALL HANDLING
OF THE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE GIVEN THE MESOSCALE
DETAIL STILL TO BE WORKED OUT A LARGER TIME SCALES.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: TUESDAY JUNE 9, 2026 AT 06:30Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MOST OF THE TIME, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSDY
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORM
COULD BRING SHIFTING WINDS AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, BUT
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIT OR MISS.
WINDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING AT 5 TO 15 KTS WILL TURN WEST
BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AND INCREASE, RANGING 10 TO 20 KTS, GUSTING TO
25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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