621
FXUS65 KGGW 091953
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
153 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT SEVERE CHANCES ARE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY.
- WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 PM
THURSDAY EVENING.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE BUMPING INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS NEAR
THE ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SPARK SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF THE STORMS TURNING SEVERE WILL BE
BRIEF IN EASTERN MONTANA IF THEY HAPPEN TO FORM IN MONTANA AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ND. ANY THREAT SHOULD BE OVER
WITH BY EARLY EVENING.
THEN WE TURN TO THE AFFECTS OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THE WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP
USHER IN COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL THURSDAY
EVENING. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE APRIL OR MAY THAN JUNE WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A 700 MB TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND IN IT'S
WAKE THURSDAY. A SMALLER CHANCE OF SHOWERS DROP IN FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL REINFORCE THE COOLNESS BUT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS BLENDED WITH WITH SOME OF THE CAMS FOR TODAY TO BE MORE
SPECIFIC WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, USED NBM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE THEN REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SEASONABLY COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK GIVEN THE OVERALL HANDLING
OF THE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE GIVEN THE MESOSCALE
DETAIL STILL TO BE WORKED OUT A LARGER TIME SCALES.
TFJ
AVIATION
UPDATED: 1950Z/1:50 PM
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KSDY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST IMPACT FOR AVIATION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD LEVELS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10K
FT AGL.
HOWEVER, A SYSTEM FROM THE NW WILL BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS BY EVENING AND A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS A SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NW. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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