976
FXUS65 KGGW 150530
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1130 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- LOOK FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MUCH COOLER, WETTER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE FORECAST BEGINS TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG
WITH AN INITIAL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER. THE LATEST HREF CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST UP TO 50 MPH AS THE
ACTIVITY EJECTS INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, AND CONTINUED SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDER INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK, BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER AN INCH COULD
SUGGEST MEANINGFUL RAINFALL FROM THE STEADIER STORMS AS THEY WASH
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENT SUGGESTIONS ARE FOR A WIDESPREAD 0.25
TO 0.50" TOTAL QPF INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
INCREASING WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO NECESSITATE THE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINNING TO EDGE
EASTWARD LATE WEEK FOR A WARM UP INTO NE MONTANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
POPS FOR TODAY WERE ADJUSTED FOR CONSISTENCY AND COLLABORATION.
OTHERWISE, NBM WAS LARGELY UTILIZED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
THE ACTIVITY MAY QUICKLY PROPAGATE INTO ND. THERE IS FAR BETTER
MODEL CONSENSUS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
UPDATED: MONDAY JUNE 15 AT 0530Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME
TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
EMERGING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR KSDY AND KGDV.
WINDS: LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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