595
FXUS65 KGGW 160942
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
342 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
- A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE.
- MUCH COOLER, WETTER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
BLOCKING HUDSON BAY LOW MAINTAINS CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FLOW BUCKLES TODAY,
BRINGING INCREASED INFLUENCE FROM WESTERN HEAT DOME, AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.
WITH THE WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE AND MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND CIRCULATION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, COULD SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, WILL INCREASE WINDS ENOUGH TO REACH LAKE WIND CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER BUT
WEAKER SHORTWAVE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WERE BLENDED WITH THE LATEST CAMS. NBM HAS
BEEN TOO DRY LATELY WITH THIS CYCLONIC NW FLOW.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST USED THE NBM.
AVIATION
VFR. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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