457
FXUS65 KGGW 051911
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
111 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
- THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS AN INCREASING CONCERN.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING. HREF
ENSEMBLE MAX WIND GUST AND UPDRAFT HELICITY SHOWS SUPPORT FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM, ESPECIALLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TRACKING IN FROM CENTRAL MT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS, DRY MID AND LOW
LEVELS, AND HIGH DCAPE SUPPORT A WIND THREAT, EVEN FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY FORM IN NORTHERN ZONES.
A VERY AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN A VERY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNFOLD WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS THE
AREA. BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, PWAT
VALUES MAINTAIN ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE TO GREATLY SURPASSING
MAXIMUM VALUES UNTIL THE LATE EVENING TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FLASH
FLOODING THAT HAS OCCURRED IN JUNE/EARLIER THIS WEEK ACROSS AREA,
THE GROUND IS ALREADY NEARLY SATURATED. THUS, THIS PERIOD WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR NOT ONLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK, BUT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS COMPOUNDING FROM ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A CONTINUING PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL TOLD,
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED POPS TO FURTHER MATCH WITH NEIGHBORS AND INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. OPTED TO NOT YET ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT IF WINDS INCREASE 2-3 KTS, THRESHOLD WILL BE MET.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1840Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A PASSING HIGH TO MID CLOUD
FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCES FOR BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING.
WIND: LIGHT NORTH WINDS THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT, SLOWLY VEERING EAST
AND INCREASING TO 10 - 15 KTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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