816
FXUS65 KGGW 070553
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1153 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
- EXPECT HIGHS TO BEGIN REACHING THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SLOPED WARM FRONT HAVE ARRIVED.
THERE IS DECENT LIGHTNING OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FLOW AS WELL TO BRING SOME REASONABLE RAIN AMOUNTS. FROM NOW
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE BASE NBM INDICATES MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE FROM 0.09 INCHES UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY, AND UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THE HEAT STARTS ITS PROGRESSION INTO THE AREA.
THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL START REACHING
THE 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS IS THE TIME OF
YEAR WHERE HEAT USUALLY STARTS BUILDING ANYWAY, SO IT WILL BE
IMPORTANT TO FIND SOME SHADE DURING PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MADE DEVIATIONS TO WINDS THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN A BREAK THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
THAT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY AND FOR RAIN TOTALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURRING THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0527Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: LATE EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARRIVING
FOR KGDV AND KGGW NOW. THEY WILL FILTER INTO KOLF AND KSDY BY 09Z
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFICIALLY MOVES IN. THERE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING FROM 14Z TUESDAY THROUGH
6Z WEDNESDAY, AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR IN THAT PERIOD. RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PART OF THE STORY, WITH
HEAVY RAIN BEING POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
WIND: EAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
09Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DAWSON-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-
WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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