451
FXUS65 KGGW 081916
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
116 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- YET ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH,
LARGE HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WITH THE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BUILD HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA.
AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO
LOW 100S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH UPPER 90S TO MID 100S WITH
SOME ENSEMBLE MEANS POINTING TO NEAR 110 DEGREES IN THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY. LOOK FOR LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EACH NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MAY
LEAD TO HIGHS COMING IN BELOW FORECAST EXPECTATIONS, BUT THE TRADE
OFF MAY BE DEW POINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NE MONTANA DEW POINTS WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
THE MID 60S. THE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITH LOW
NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES WILL ADD RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SHORT TERM POPS FOR COLLABORATION
AND CONSISTENCY. OTHERWISE, ENSEMBLES SHOW DECENT CONSENSUS ON
TRACK AND EVOLUTION FOR STORMS THIS EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING ON EXTREME HEAT CONDITIONS UNFOLDING THIS WEEKEND. HEAT
IMPACT LEVELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: WEDNESDAY JULY 8 AT 1915Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO IFR.
DISCUSSION: LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO IFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY HIT OR MISS BUT MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES IF PASSING DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.
WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RANGE 5 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 06Z
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOOK FOR GUSTY AND SHIFTING
WINDS NEAR ANY STORMS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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