687
FXUS65 KGGW 090604
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1204 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL IMPACT
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS WEEKEND, WHERE DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S AND 100S AND LOWS ONLY GET DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
- THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY DURING THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AS WINDS
AND HUMIDITY WILL BOTH BE IN THE TEENS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING FOR MAINTENANCE, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
EVENTUALLY THE LACK OF HEATING AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A STABLE
LAYER SHOULD KILL OFF WHAT STORMS ARE CURRENTLY OUT THERE.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME STRONGLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN FOR GIVING
NORTHEAST MONTANA VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES. AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE 90S AND 100S, AND SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE HINTING AT NEAR 110 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH POOR
RECOVERY (LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH NIGHT) AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES) FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION, AND THIS CREATES A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT
SITUATION FOR ALL GROUPS OF PEOPLE.
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE SOME AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, OVERALL TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND HEAT STRESSES COULD LAST WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FROM BASE THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH RESPECT TO THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING DANGEROUS HEAT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND,
CONFIDENCE LOWERS BUT IS STILL MODERATE IN CONTINUED WARM
CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION.
CLIFF
AVIATION
UPDATED: THURSDAY JULY 9 AT 0530Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS OVERNIGHT. OF THE
MAIN TAF SITES, IT IS MOST LIKELY FOR GGW AND OLF TO BE IMPACTED
BY THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS CLEAR FOR THE REST OF
THURSDAY ONCE THE STORMS DIE OFF.
WIND: WHILE OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
MOST AREAS, ANY AIRFIELDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD SEE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
STABILIZE MORE OUT OF THE WEST FROM 5-15 KTS FOR MOST OF THURSDAY.
CLIFF
FIRE WEATHER
CONFIDENCE IN ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT
IS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT, AS LONG AS
THE FORECAST REMAINS AS IT IS NOW, THAT SUNDAY COULD BE AN
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY, MAINLY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 137 IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122. SHOULD ALL THE NECESSARY CONDITIONS COME
TOGETHER, THE CRITICAL POTENTIAL WOULD BE DUE TO THE EXTREME HEAT
(TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S), LOW HUMIDITY (10-15% IN THE
AFTERNOON), AND WINDS THAT ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE BETWEEN 10-20
MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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