002
FXUS65 KGGW 100636
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1236 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE IMPACTS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S AND
100S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND GREEN FUELS MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE RISK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BECOME FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND HOT
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH SATURDAY NOW ONE DAY AWAY AND THE
CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND,
WILL UPGRADE THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 100 IN
MOST AREAS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE 100 IN MOST AREAS.
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE 65 TO 70 IN MOST AREAS. IN ADDITION,
THIS HEAT WAVE WILL BE MORE HUMID THAN USUAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
60S. THESE PROLONGED CONDITIONS MAY RAISE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.
ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY GREATER
THAN 30 MPH. IF THIS OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF HUMIDITY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. RECENT PRECIPITATION AND GREEN FUELS MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE RISK, BUT THIS PERIOD REMAINS
WORTH MONITORING.
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 90S ON MONDAY AND 80S NORTH AND
90S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NBM. ENSEMBLES ARE IN LINE WITH
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. EVEN IF FORECAST MAXIMUMS COME IN BELOW
EXPECTATIONS, THE HUMID AIR MASS WOULD OFFSET THAT MODERATION.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY LEAVE ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO KEEP THE
MESSAGING GOING.
AVIATION
UPDATED: FRIDAY JULY 10 AT 0630Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE TAF CYCLE AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO GAIN AN
INFLUENCE. HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO EQUIPMENT ISSUES.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SE 5 TO
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TO SE THIS EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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