269
FXUS65 KGGW 101755
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1155 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY ARE COMBINING TO
MAKE STAYING COOL RATHER DIFFICULT THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. POOR
COOLING AT NIGHT WILL ALSO BE PART OF THE STORY, SO MAKE SURE TO
FIND WAYS OF KEEPING YOURSELF COOL. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
BACK IN BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE AREA. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TRANSPORT WARM AIR NORTHWARD INTO
OUR AREA. THE PEAK IN INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE
SUNDAY, WITH ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO BE FROM AROUND 98
TO 110 DEGREES FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE. THE BASE NBM INDICATES LOWS
STAYING ABOVE 65 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
MONDAY NIGHT, SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO STAY COOL ENOUGH TO SLEEP
COMFORTABLY. THERE ARE SMALL WIGGLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR
VARIOUS CAMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FORCING
OVER THE AREA WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN INTENSE STORM SINCE
RECENT RAINFALL HAS HELPED KEEP HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL, BUT
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AT THE VERY LEAST. THERE IS
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A MID LEVEL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TOMORROW,
SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THERE.
THERE IS A LOW (10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING.
THERE IS A SIMILAR EVENT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH THIS LOW CHANCE
BEING MOSTLY IN CENTRAL MONTANA. ONE CAM SUGGESTS A SEVERE GUST OR
TWO THERE.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE BY LATE MONDAY EVENING, SO CENTRAL MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO
START TO SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. A PUSH INTO NORTHEAST IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY EVENING, SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AGAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS WERE MADE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 65
DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF STORMS HOLDING OFF THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FIRE WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. RECENT RAINS ARE KEEPING THE VEGETATION
PRETTY GREEN, SO FIRE CONCERNS ARE LOW.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
UPDATED: FRIDAY JULY 10 AT 18:15Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE TAF CYCLE AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO GAIN AN
INFLUENCE. HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO EQUIPMENT ISSUES.
WIND: MAINLY SOUTH AT 8 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AFTER 03Z, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 9 TO 16 KNOTS AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY.
LLWS: SOUTH AROUND 40 KNOTS FROM 05Z TO 11Z FOR KSDY AND KGDV.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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