109
FXUS65 KGGW 140855
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
255 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR RICHLAND, DAWSON, PRAIRIE AND WIBAUX
COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE AN HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NE MONTANA THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR PETROLEUM
AND SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
CLOSED UPPER HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE HEAT GOING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO OUR SE ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS FOR DAWSON, RICHLAND, PRAIRIE AND WIBAUX COUNTIES WHERE
HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
THE MOST OF NE MONTANA EXCEPT FOR DANIELS AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
TODAY. THEN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SENDS STORMS NORTHEAST INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING. UPDRAFT HELICITY AND MAX UPDRAFT FROM THE HREF
IS SHOWING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN ZONES.
WITH THE HIGH PRECIP WATERS (1.0 TO 1.8"), FLOODING COULD ALSO BE
A CONCERN. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PETROLEUM
AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.
EAST TO NE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY OVER FORT PECK LAKE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND: UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW THEN MOVES NE
INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
REBOUNDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAT CONTINUING ESPECIALLY IN THE
SE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE NW TONIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
TWEAKED POPS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO PROVIDE BETTER HOUR
TO HOUR CONSISTENCY. OTHERWISE, DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0845Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR MOST OF THE TIME. KGGW MAY HAVE PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING. KGGW WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES AFTER
02Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SFC WIND: NE WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY BECOMING EAST 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACKING TO THE NE TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
RICHLAND-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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