759
FXUS65 KGGW 150628
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1228 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA, IN
PARTICULAR ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FOR WEDNESDAY.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE CONTINUED HEAT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TERRY TO SIDNEY
CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH 100 DEGREES. WILL KEEP
HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS. THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR FORT PECK LAKE BUT LATEST EXPECTED
TRENDS DO SUGGEST DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A GENERAL REBOUND OF UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE REGION EXTENDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THUS WILL
MEAN A CONTINUATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
AT TIMES, BUT THE PREDICTABILITY OF SPECIFIC TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT AT LARGER TIME SCALES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WHICH CAPTURED EXPECTED
BIG PICTURE TRENDS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON CONTINUED ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL BE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE AVAILABLE, NEAR TERM
TWEAKS TO POPS MAY BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR FOR
EACH PARTICULAR EVENT.
AVIATION
UPDATED: WEDNESDAY JULY 15 AT 0445Z.
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR WILL PREVAIL, LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION: VFR WILL TEND TO PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TODAY MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO IFR.
WIND: E TO NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS, GUSTING TO 30 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 00Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
RICHLAND-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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