817
FXUS65 KGGW 152001
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
201 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ADDITIONAL ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE CONTINUED HEAT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TERRY TO SIDNEY
CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH 100 DEGREES. WILL KEEP
HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS. THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR FORT PECK LAKE BUT LATEST EXPECTED
TRENDS DO SUGGEST DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, LOOK FOR A GENERAL REBOUND OF UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE REGION EXTENDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THUS WILL
MEAN A CONTINUATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
AT TIMES, BUT THE PREDICTABILITY OF SPECIFIC TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WILL BE DIFFICULT AT LARGER TIME SCALES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WHICH CAPTURED EXPECTED
BIG PICTURE TRENDS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON CONTINUED ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT THERE WILL BE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE AVAILABLE, NEAR TERM
TWEAKS TO POPS MAY BETTER REFLECT EXPECTED CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR FOR
EACH PARTICULAR EVENT.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 1945Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSING
OVER TAF SITES MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR.
WIND: NE AROUND 10KTS. WINDS LESSEN OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING NW
AT 10 KTS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR DAWSON-PRAIRIE-
RICHLAND-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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