451
FXUS65 KGGW 160605
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1205 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE WESTERN U.S., EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL DRIVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AT TIMES
HIGH HUMIDITY.
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING HOURS.THAT SAID, THE PREDICTABILITY OF SPECIFIC TIMING AND
PLACEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR WILL BE DIFFICULT AT LARGER
TIME SCALES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CONSISTENCY AND NEAR TERM COLLABORATION.
OTHERWISE, NBM LARGELY HANDLED THE BIG PICTURE TRENDS WELL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL BETTER HANDLE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS EXPECTED TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFINE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT MECHANICS. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF STORMS.
AVIATION
UPDATED: THURSDAY JULY 16 AT 0530Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE IS SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE
UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS TODAY OVERALL. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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