416
FXUS65 KGGW 022039
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES CLIMB
THROUGH THE WEEK, RETURNING TO MID 90S BY FRIDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY DUE
TO WARM, WINDY, AND DRY CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES
UNTIL 9 PM. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 6 PM.
- INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE IMPACTS TO
RECREATION ON FORT PECK LAKE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PASSING THROUGH THE REGION, WINDY
CONDITIONS STILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING AND INCREASED 700 MB WINDS MAINTAIN
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH A COOLING
AIRMASS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DRY AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT CRITICAL LEVELS, SO THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 PM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SMOKE INTO THE REGION FROM
WASHINGTON AND OREGON, FOR REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY AND AIR
QUALITY. AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE UNTIL 6 PM.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A TRAILING
LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK OFFERING A
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT WITH THIS, AND MAY
WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO RECEPTIVE
FUELS. WHILE ERC VALUES HAVE LOWERED BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE,
THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVERLAP WITH AREAS OF
DRIER FUELS.
LONGER TERM, ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING DOWNSTREAM
AS A NEW RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL EXTEND HEIGHT RISES OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATING TEMPERATURE TOWARD SEASONABLE AVERAGES
LATE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
WHILE NBM HANDLED THE BIG PICTURE WELL ACROSS THE FORECAST, A
BLEND WITH NBM90 WAS USED FOR NEAR TERM WINDS THIS WEEKEND IN LINE
WITH THE EXPECTED WINDY CONDITIONS SUPPORTING THE RED FLAG AND
LAKE WIND HEADLINES IN EFFECT.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 1930Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR PREVAILING - IFR IN DENSE SMOKE
DISCUSSION: QUIET WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE THROUGH THE EVENING. PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHTNING BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WIND: NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS
DURING THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS RETURN AFTER
SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES ACROSS
NE MONTANA (120, 122, 134-37) UNTIL 9PM MDT TONIGHT. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TAKEN TOGETHER IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS, THESE CONDITIONS WILL
MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LIGHTER
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY WARRANT AN EXTENSION OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING.
HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WHILE MIN RH VALUES REMAIN LOWER IN THE 20 TO
40% RANGE, OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE BETTER. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME LIGHTER BY TUESDAY. THUS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD EASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE AND RH VALUES DROP AFTER
TUESDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-NORTHERN
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND
SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEY-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-RICHLAND-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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