003
FXUS65 KGGW 030623
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THEN, TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK, RETURNING TO MID 90S
BY FRIDAY.
- SMOKE SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
- INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
CAUSE IMPACTS TO RECREATION ON FORT PECK LAKE.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING AS A LOW MOVES OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
IN THE WEEK OFFERING A RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER OR
DRY THUNDERSTORM THIS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
LONGER TERM, ENSEMBLES EXIT THE TROUGH TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A NEW RIDGE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL SLOWLY EXTEND INCREASING HEIGHT RISES OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN TEMPS.
HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL REACH UP TO 90S AGAIN AND PROBABLY LAST INTO
THE WEEKNIGHT. CURRENT RIDGE CREST LOOKS LIKE IT MAY PASS THE
REGION AROUND SUNDAY WHICH COULD INTRODUCE INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN THEREAFTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FROM NBM INCLUDED USING A CAMS BLEND FOR POPS THROUGH
TOMORROW. CURRENT PPI01 IS NOT MATCHING UP TO RADAR ECHOS ACROSS
THE REGION AND CAMS TEND TO CONTINUE THIS TREND ALL THE WAY INTO
THIS COMING EVENING. FV3 WAS THE ONE MODEL THROWN OUT AS IT WAS
NOT ON TARGET WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHER DEVIATIONS INCLUDE PULLING HRRRSMOKE DATA IN FOR VIS TO
REPLACE THE NBM/GLAMP DATA WHICH WAS OFF TARGET FOR THE REMOVAL OF
THE SMOKE PLUME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0600Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: QUIET WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE. PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z. AFTERWARD A FRONT MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
CLEAR MOST SMOKE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEMRINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHTNING AND RAIN THROUGH 03Z MONDAY, THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH
PROB30S.
WIND: NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS BECOMING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS
DURING THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS RETURN AFTER
SUNRISE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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