270
FXUS65 KGGW 050622
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1222 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY AND THURSDAY UNTIL A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOWER TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
ON FRIDAY.
- NW WINDS AND LOW RH MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.
- A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN MANITOBA AND AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TODAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A
DRY FRONT WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. WINDS
SPEEDS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL MAINTAIN FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE SOUTHWEST
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BEING NEAR A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SAME TIME, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THAT THE NORTH WILL HAVE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WHILE THE SOUTH HAS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
90S.
THE LATEST NBM DELAYS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE ARE NO DEVIATIONS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
OCCURRING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0600Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH A
FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW 5
TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z AND WSW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME WNW AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT
PECK RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES-
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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