392
FXUS65 KGGW 051813
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1213 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TO BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND LAKE WINDS UP.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMOKE MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN MANITOBA AND AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW. ON THURSDAY, A DRY
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING
WINDS UP ON FORT PECK LAKE, NELSON RESERVOIR, AND MEDICINE LAKE,
AND WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
A FEW CAMS (HRRR AND NAMNEST) INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
200 J/KG ON THURSDAY NIGHT, SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE SOUTHWEST
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BEING NEAR A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SAME TIME, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THAT THE NORTH WILL HAVE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WHILE THE SOUTH HAS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
90S.
THE LATEST NBM DELAYS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE ONLY DEVIATION WAS TO POPS IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BRING THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SMOKE AND HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR THROUGH 16Z. SCATTERED HAZE FROM WILDFIRES
AFTER THAT.
DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH A
FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE ARE WILDFIRES WEST OF THE AREA.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING
FROM 16Z TO 00Z FRIDAY.
WIND: WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 17Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page