034
FXUS65 KGGW 060631
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1231 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WARM TEMPERATURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOMEWHAT LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY.
- NW WINDS AND LOW RH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN MANITOBA AND AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NW. A DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS UP ON FORT PECK LAKE, NELSON RESERVOIR, AND MEDICINE LAKE,
AND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FORT
PECK LAKE AND RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OUT WEST WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THE SMOKE TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING ITS IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY.
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE SOUTHWEST
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BEING NEAR A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SAME TIME, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THAT THE NORTH WILL HAVE
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S WHILE THE SOUTH HAS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
90S.
ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
WHICH COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE ONLY DEVIATION WAS TO INCREASE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SMOKE AND HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0600Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH A
FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE ARE WILDFIRES WEST OF THE AREA WHICH
WILL BRING SOME SMOKE EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED
SOUTH BY A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY OCCURRING FROM THIS TODAY.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, BECOMING WEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z AND NW 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z
FRIDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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