279
FXUS65 KGGW 061804
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1204 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.
- NW WINDS AND LOW RH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH TONIGHT. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE BOTH SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER MANITOBA THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS WILL NOT BRING
MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BESIDE A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER IN
THE FAR NORTH TONIGHT. WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BRIEFLY THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA. THE HRRR GOES
OUT 48 HOURS AND THE RAP MODEL GOES ABOUT 51 HOURS AT THE MAXIMUM,
SO THERE IS NOT A FORECAST FOR SMOKE JUST YET BEYOND TWO DAYS INTO
THE FUTURE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE
AND RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IN MANITOBA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE OVERALL FLOW ARE SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF THIS ACTIVE PATTERN LINGERING PAST MONDAY TO BRING ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE ONLY DEVIATION WAS TO INCREASE WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE FAR
NORTH OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SMOKE AND HAZE REDUCING
VISIBILITY SLIGHTLY AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OCCURRING
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH
SOME OVERCAST MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF WILDFIRE SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 6 MILES THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WIND: SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 15
TO 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS AFTER 20Z, DECREASING TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 07Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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