187
FXUS65 KGGW 072018
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DROP THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.
- INCREASED WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW RH WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST.
- A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW FROM NOON TO 8
PM FOR A PORTION OF NE MONTANA.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY
FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE. OVER TIME THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TOMORROW WILL SEE A SLIGHT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
STRONGER WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA. THIS ALSO LEADS INTO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FIRE ZONES. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH, AND ADDITIONAL ZONES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED, BUT
TIMING REMAINS THE SAME. THE WINDOW WITH THE MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE TOMORROW FROM NOON TO 8 PM.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS, AND FLOW TURNS ZONAL, SMOKE WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO NORTHEAST MONTANA FOR NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED WINDS USING FV3, AND CONTINUED USING HRRR FOR DAY 1-3
SMOKE. LOWERED SATURDAY'S RH BY HAND TO BETTER MATCH WITH
NEIGHBORS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2000Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
BECOME EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH SEVERAL WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z FOLLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ALSO
EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE ENTERING FROM SOUTHERN
MONTANA WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10 AND 15%
PERCENT AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FIRE ZONES 136 AND 137,
PROMPTING AND UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING. MORE MARGINAL,
BORDERLINE RFW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT IN ZONES 135 AND 122, SO
THEY HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPGRADE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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