029
FXUS65 KGGW 080636
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1236 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXISTS SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THOSE CHANCES
WILL SHIFT TO THE MT/ND BORDER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO PERSIST NEAR LAKE
WIND THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR NOW. HOWEVER, NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. IT IS NOTEWORTHY, THAT SOME OF THE HREF GUIDANCE
DOES PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS NEAR FORT
PECK LAKE. BLENDING NBM, NBM90, AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HOWEVER STILL PRODUCES WINDS THAT ARE SHY OF CRITERIA. GIVEN THAT
THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE DURING THE EVENING OR AT NIGHT, WILL LET
THE DAY SHIFT HAVE ONE FINAL LOOK AT THE DECISION, BUT DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND ALONG
THE MT/ND BORDER LATER IN THE DAY. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LOOK TO CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT MORE ACTIVE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TO THAT END,
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL SO FAR DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LEADING TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WERE ADJUSTED USING NBM,
NBM90, AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FOR AN UPWARD NUDGE GIVEN
EXPECTATIONS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION FOLLOWED BY THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE ON WHETHER THESE WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
WIND CRITERIA AT FORT PECK LAKE. THERE IS HOWEVER, A GROWING
EMERGENCE OF CONSENSUS ON A MORE ACTIVE THOUGH SOMEWHAT COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN TO UNFOLD DURING THE WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: SATURDAY AUGUST 8 AT 0545Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS A FEW MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAZE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LIKELY RESTRICT VISIBILITY.
WIND: EAST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS THIS MORNING,
SHIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH AND
INCREASING TO A RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER
GUSTS.
FIRE WEATHER
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT, AND DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS IN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FWZS 122, 135, 136, AND 137 FROM
NOON UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS ARE LIKELY TO
RECOVER, RESULTING IN IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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