322
FXUS65 KGGW 081939
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
139 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
- A MORE ACTIVE AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEK AHEAD WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FOR
TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER UNTIL 8PM.
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER, AND CONTINUES ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER LATER IN THE DAY.
ZONAL FLOW WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LOOK TO CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO SET UP
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES
BUT MORE ACTIVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
LOWERED DAY 1 RH BLENDING IN ADJMAV, INCREASED HIRES GUIDANCE FOR
WINDS USING FV3 AND WIND GUSTS USING NBM90, AS WELL AS HAND EDITS
TO BETTER MATCH WITH NEIGHBORS. CONTINUED USING HRRR FOR DAY 1-3
SMOKE/HAZE.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1830Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, INCREASING TO
SCT - FEW MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HAZE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRE SMOKE
WILL BE PRESENT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY.
WIND: FREQUENT WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING NORTHEAST TO EAST
TOMORROW MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH AND
INCREASING TO A RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER
GUSTS. WINDS RETURN NNW IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20%, AND DEVELOPING
FREQUENT WIND SHIFTS WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FWZS
122, 135, 136, AND 137 UNTIL 8 PM TODAY. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
ARE LIKELY TO RECOVER, RESULTING IN IMPROVING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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