621
FXUS65 KGGW 111156
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
556 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH
AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
- A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS CHANGE
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
TODAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE MONTANA
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST SMOKE TO SPREAD FURTHER INTO
THE REGION. CHANCES FOR ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION TO RECEIVE ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW IS RELATIVELY LOW (<20%) BUT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHIFT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS SOME SOUTHWESTERN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
DOES TRANSPORT ITS WAY THIS FAR NORTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR
COOLING WITH THIS PATTERN, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY PLACES AS OPPOSED TO THE CURRENT 80S TO 90S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
FORECAST DEVIATION INCLUDE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MAINLY LEADING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY BASED OF TREND
FROM YESTERDAY AND EXPECTATION OF INCREASING SMOKE ALOFT.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW
AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN
ACCUMULATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS, BUT THIS COULD SET
UP TO BE A LOW- CONFIDENCE/HIGH- IMPACT SCENARIO WHERE MANY
LOCATIONS COULD GET NORTH OF 1" OF TOTAL RAINFALL THIS WEEK.
BEYOND THE RAIN, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE BIG TEMPERATURE
SWING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT THAT COULD BRING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT THE REGION
RETURNS TO WARM AND DRY, OR IF CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR. HAZE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE AND A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS,
THOUGH A STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER OR QUICK THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION OR AIRFIELD
WILL BE LOW.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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