353
FXUS65 KGGW 111838
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1238 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA WEDNESDAY
AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AHEAD OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE THE MANIFESTATION OF THAT PATTERN
SHIFT WITH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER
CONDITIONS. OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD, MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE
NORTH OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED RAINFALL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON'T COMPLETELY GO AWAY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS
DRIER AND WARMER.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
TODAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE MONTANA
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST SMOKE TO SPREAD FURTHER INTO
THE REGION. CHANCES FOR ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION TO RECEIVE ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW IS RELATIVELY LOW (<20%) BUT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS SHIFT WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS SOME SOUTHWESTERN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
DOES TRANSPORT ITS WAY THIS FAR NORTH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR
COOLING WITH THIS PATTERN, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S
FOR MANY PLACES AS OPPOSED TO THE CURRENT 80S TO 90S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
GENERALLY LEFT THE BASE FORECAST RIDE TODAY WITH LITTLE
ADJUSTMENTS.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INCREASING EVEN WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO CLIMB FOR MANY AREAS, BUT
THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A LOW-
CONFIDENCE/HIGH- IMPACT PRECIPITATION EVENT WHERE MANY LOCATIONS
COULD GET NORTH OF 1" OF TOTAL RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEYOND THE RAIN, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE BIG TEMPERATURE
SWING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT THAT COULD BRING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST,
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT THE REGION
RETURNS TO WARM AND DRY, OR IF CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED: TUESDAY, AUGUST 11, 1900Z
EXPECTED FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
SYNOPSIS: SOME ELEVATED SMOKE IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS MONTANA, AND
COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY AT SOME SITES WHILE THERE IS STILL
DAYLIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MOSTLY EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS.
CLIFF
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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