084
FXUS65 KGGW 161836
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1236 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING THROUGH
6 AM MONDAY. THEN AGAIN AFTER 2 PM MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT AFTER
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THIS WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH 12Z. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTER FOR A SIMILAR SITUATION TO
TODAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH THAT PROBABILITY BEING AROUND 5 PERCENT. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A PASSING MANITOBA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING AFTER THAT TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN THE 70S AND UPPER 80S) ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MAIN DEVIATIONS TO THE NBM WERE TO SPREAD POPS ACROSS A LARGER
AREA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
THROUGH ABOUT 6 AM MONDAY, THEN A BREAK, AND THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS AFTER 3 PM IN THE WEST, AND AFTER 5 PM MONDAY OVER
THE WHOLE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS BEING
SEVERE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S AND 80S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1841Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR IN THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION: A WEAK TROUGH IS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSDY AND KGDV CURRENTLY, WHICH IS GIVING
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
(80 PERCENT) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z, SO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. AS DAYTIME
HEATING HAPPENS TOMORROW WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE EDGE OF A
TROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER ABOUT 21Z.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (30 PERCENT) OF A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BEING STRONG (GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL), AND A LOW CHANCE (5 PERCENT)
OF THEM BEING SEVERE.
WINDS: SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
01Z, BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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