716
FXUS65 KGGW 170645
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1245 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPEAR ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM UP TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS PUSH BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE TRACKING INTO NE MONTANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES ARE FROM 3PM UNTIL 10PM.
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WIDE AFTERNOON DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS PAINT A SCENARIO
DEPICTING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS
IS SHOWN WELL IN THE HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
CONVECTION. ENSEMBLES THEN SHOW HEIGHT RISES OVER NE MONTANA AS
THE U.S. WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BACK TOWARD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
SHORT TERM POPS WERE ADJUSTED IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS IN
AN EFFORT TO BEST DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON SPECIFIC PLACEMENT OF SEVERE THREAT
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY ISOLATED COVERAGE. GIVEN THE STRONG ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WITH THE RIDGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO GROWING IN SUPPORT OF DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THAT
PERIOD.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: MONDAY AUGUST 17 AT 0615Z.
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION:A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SUPPORT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS NEAR
STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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